Quantifying the irreducible uncertainty in near-term climate projections

I define the climate response as an increase or decrease in a linear climate trend over the period 2021–2035, compared to 2006–2020, and establish the probability of such a trend change being caused by an assumed policy shift toward emissions reductions after 2020. I quantify the irreducible uncertainty in projecting such a trend change through very large (100-member) ensembles of the state-of-the-art climate model MPI-ESM-LR